Sony is dominating mirrorless sales in Japan. If you want to assume that they are going to focus on their mirrorless E- and FE-mount product lines (and you don’t want to simply take them at their word), their market share numbers in Japan represent another set of data points which would lead us to agree with you.
For the last four years, Canon has been # 1 in DSLR sales in their home market of Japan. Nikon has remained a perennial # 2. Third place? Pentax one year, Sony the next, Ricoh that last two – but third place is almost noise, with share dropping for the 3# player from 7.5% to 4.5% over that same period.
No big news there. Not the right place to go head-to-head with Canikon.
So the fact that Sony's DSLR share is dropping? Feh. Who cares?
What IS big news, however, is how Sony’s dominance of the mirrorless market has grown – and is vectoring towards Canon’s equivalent dominance of the DSLR business. For 2015, Sony’s share of the Japanese mirrorless market is 34.3%, 12 points higher than second place Olympus, and triple the share of third place Panasonic. By comparison, Canon has 54.7% share of the DSLR market in Japan, 15.6 points higher than second place Nikon and a whopping 12 times the size of number three Ricoh.
And here's the really interesting inflection point: both anecdotally and on the basis of data that we can get our hands on and from which we can infer (see this, for example), Sony's A7 line is cutting into Canon's 5D Mk III sales.
No, I have no relationship with Sony whatsoever except for the fact that I bought and paid for an a6000 and their E 50mm f/1.8 OSS lens.
But who doesn’t love a turnaround story?Sony Dominates Japanese Market Mirrorless Sales Click To Tweet
Japanese sales in 2014: Sony leads the mirrorless ranking. Loses on the DSLR market.
BCNranking published the full 2014 camera sales date in Japan. The good news is that Sony dethroned Olympus and is now number one in the mirrorless system camera market in Japan. And in Japan mirrorless is very strong and on par with DSLR in terms of cameras sales. The (unsurprisingly) bad news is that Sony really holds no more any meaningful share of the DSLR market:
(cover photo credit: snap from the SonyAlphaRumors)